Three Reasons Why the Euro is Going Back to 1.45

Illustration: Euro
This is a guest post by Simit Patel

At the time of this writing — February 2012 — the Euro is trading at around 1.31. Though it may seem unlikely now, here are three reasons to believe EURUSD is headed back to 1.45 in the years to come.

Euro Bulls are Defending 1.28. As the monthly chart below illustrates, 1.28 has historically been a support/resistance zone — meaning a focal point where strong buyers/sellers capable of pushing the market step in. On top of that, technical analysts will observe that it is around the 38.2% retracement level of the big move up from the Euro’s inception in 2001 to its 2008 highs past 1.60 while also being around where the 200 month exponential moving average is. The fact that these technical indicators are all finding themselves in roughly the same price zone tells us that there is a “price wall” of sorts; it will be tough for sellers to push through this zone, as those who have been short sellers for a while will look to take profits, while speculative buyers will feel comfortable jumping in here.

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